Equityworld futures-Victory Donald Trump as the number one in the United States into a global market astounding event. Even some parties refer to this phenomenon as Brexit second stage.
Of course, Trump factors also influence the movement of commodities. One commodity that received the most attention is the gold as a hedge assets.
In trading Thursday (10/11) until 17:43 pm, gold spot gold prices rose 3.87 points, or 0.3%, leading to US $ 1,281.85 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, Comex gold contracts in December 2016 increased by 7.7 points or 0.6% to the US $ 1,281.2 per troy ounce.
The gold price per gram Antam rose 5,000 to a level of Rp565.600-Rp606.000 per gram. Meanwhile, the buyback price also increased 5,000 towards Rp537.000 per gram.
Increasing the price of gold also penetrate the strengthening dollar sentiment. Yesterday at 17:35 GMT, the dollar index was observed up 0.35 points, or 0.35% toward 98.85.
Agus Chandra, Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures, said the vote count session US Presidential candidate, the market experienced a tremendous tension when Donald Trump to outperform its peers Hillary Clinton. The dollar index also fell drastically towards the 95 level.
Also made the market panic gold managed to reach a level of US $ 1,337 per troy ounce as investors who memarikan funds into haven assets. However, when Trump won 276 points electoral votes and Clinton 218 electoral votes, the dollar index rose slowly into position 97.
Apparently, the market began to accept the presence of the property tycoon as the head of Uncle Sam. As a result of gold hit by profit-taking due to the US dollar rebound.
“It turns out that the results of the vote count showed the superiority of Trump convincing position. It can be said the negative impact on the dollar is not significant, “said Agus when contacted by Business, Wednesday (9/11).
The impact of the US election results for gold only for a moment because it is indirect. According to him, the direct effect of market anxiety occurred in the stock market experienced a selloff, then investors move funds into haven assets such as gold.
Until the end of this year, gold prices are likely to stay above US $ 1,300 per troy ounce. The main sentiment that sustains the market anxiety is due to two major events, namely British Exit or Brexit and continuation of the policies of President Trump.
Indeed, the probability of the Federal Reserve hoisted interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on 13-14 December 2016 is still high, so the dollar will strengthen and hit the price of commodities, especially gold. However, the high anxiety of the market two major events this year tackling the sentiment of the Fed.
According to Agus, the Fed’s policy hoisted interest rates at the end of 2016 will not change because of the new president. Because the new Trump effectively holding the reins of office in early 2017.
However, it was rumored that the President of the Republican Party is going to intervene in the policies of the Federal Reserve. One is removing the post of Janet Yellen as Fed governor.
“Two factors, Brexit and Trump will sustain gold above US $ 1,300 per troy ounce by year-end,” said Agus.
Separately, Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Asia Tradepoint Futures analyst, said the victory of US President Trump as making the global stock market turbulence. Market fluctuations eventually make gold an asset excellent.
Meanwhile, the rise of the currency as a hedge assets will not be significant in the long term. The reason, Japan and European countries are still struggling to hoist the inflation rate and the growth of the domestic economy.
“The strengthening of some currencies is only momentary sentiment. A clear market risk Trump shock and very beneficial for gold, “he said.
Until the end of 2016, continued Deddy, Spot Gold prices could potentially penetrate the resistance level of US $ 1339.40 per troy ounce to crawl up into the area of US $ 1,400 per troy ounce.
According to him, there are two main factors that underpin gold prices, the direction of the President’s policy and sustainability Brexit Trump is scheduled to be completed in April 2017.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve will reconsider pengerekan interest rates at a meeting in December 2016, so that the pressure on commodities softened.
Considerations The US central bank certainly related to the direction of government policy Trump, whether raised concerns about the market or not.
However, continued Deddy, pengerekan Fed interest rate though it would not stop gold experienced a bullish period. “Trump victory speech tends to cool. Investors still feel the market conditions in the future,” he added.
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. the publication said that soaring price of gold is currently selected Trump began to fade along with easing market anxiety.
Probability pengerekan Fed interest rate in December also rose to the position of 82% compared to the end of last week by 76%. Yet when the US election results of the counting process, the probability had weakened to below 50%.
Gold investors will still feel the extent to which factors the new US president or plan pengerekan Fed interest rate that is dominating sentiment in precious metals prices. However, Trump victory gives the uncertain situation, so that it becomes a new force for gold to climb.